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  • Representative Research Results 2 - Theoretical Methods and Optimal Allocation of Water Resources for Regional Reservoir Group Optimization Scheduling

    1. Major scientific and technological innovation contributions

    (1) For the first time, the benefit evaluation system for joint optimal dispatching of cascade hydropower stations was established, and an automatic evaluation expert system was established. The improved algorithm for the improvement of cascade water energy utilization based on the automatic water level discrimination mechanism and the time-phase reversal of the comprehensive output coefficient K value were proposed for the first time. The method of determining the solution solves the problem that the value of the output coefficient K is fixed and the calculation error is large.

    (2) The multi-objective coupling prediction model of multi-year regulation reservoir based on the total energy of cascade reservoirs is established. The classification hypothesis and reverse sequence generation method of accelerated genetic algorithm population is proposed to solve the problem of solving the maximum power generation model of multi-stage hydropower stations.

    (3) Established the rainfall-runoff nearest-day runoff forecast model considering the impact of rainfall; established a multivariate stepwise regression runoff forecasting model and used atmospheric circulation and sea temperature and upstream flow factors for runoff forecasting.

    (4) Obtain the relationship between the regenerative energy-power generation amount-disposal water loss-occurrence probability under different recharge water level conditions, obtain the optimal recharge water level under the guidance of the corresponding evaluation criteria; propose the concept of super-storage water threshold value To provide conditions for the quantitative analysis of the risk level of super-storage.

    (5) The flood characteristic analysis index system was constructed, and the intrinsic relationship between flood process characteristics and flood periods during the year was revealed. The “diagnosis-extraction-test” prediction modeling method (DDP method) for the runoff year type and flood characteristic index was established for the first time. model.

    (6) It is proposed to analyze the complexity of flood sequences by using the Ramper-Zifu complexity algorithm. The flood evolution law analysis model based on Hilbert-Huang transform theory is established. The period and trend of the annual maximum peak flow time series are studied.

    (7) The statistical method of the inter-rain period and the calculation model of the surcharge risk of the dewatering section considering the forecast error are established, and the optimal flood control scheduling diagram of the reservoir with the goal of flood resource utilization is given. A flood resource utilization method based on the control of the limit water level of the cascade reservoirs based on the flood area is proposed, and the risk transfer mechanism of the combined flood control dispatching of the reservoir group is revealed.

    2. Results application

    (1) The research results have been applied in the Wujiang cascade hydropower station group dispatching work, and achieved good results.

    (2) The theory and method of flood resource utilization are based on the Shiquan Reservoir, Xihe Reservoir and Ankang Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Han River as an example to study and carry out practical application, which has produced great economic benefits.

     

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